Inflation Surge in Nigerian States: Highest Consumer Price Index Increases by September 2024, Based on NBS Data -

Last Updated on 8 November 2024 by Naijadazz

To provide a comprehensive analysis based on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data on Nigeria’s Combined Urban and Rural State Consumer Price Index (CPI) from September 2023 to September 2024, this report delves into month-over-month (MoM) and year-over-year (YoY) CPI trends across Nigerian states. By analyzing the NBS report, we can observe shifts in food and all-item indices across urban and rural settings, illuminating the inflationary pressures affecting both food and general consumer prices. This report highlights how specific states are impacted by rising prices, pinpointing areas where inflation is more severe.

General Overview of the CPI Data

The NBS data highlights a consistent upward trend in consumer prices nationwide, with nearly all states showing significant YoY increases in both food and all-items indices. Notably, food inflation tends to be higher than the overall all-items CPI. This discrepancy suggests that food inflation is a particularly pressing issue across many regions, likely driven by a combination of supply chain disruptions, currency devaluation, and elevated agricultural production costs.

Monthly Comparison: August 2024 vs. September 2024

In terms of MoM changes, most states showed moderate increases, with specific states experiencing more pronounced inflationary pressures in September 2024. Three states with notable MoM increases in food CPI—Sokoto, Taraba, and Bayelsa—stand out as experiencing substantial inflationary pressures:

Sokoto: The food CPI increased by 5.94%, while the all-items index rose by 4.63%, indicating high inflation on a month-to-month basis.
Taraba: With a 5.76% MoM increase in food and a 4.07% increase in all-items CPI, Taraba reflects inflationary trends similar to those in Sokoto.
Bayelsa: Bayelsa saw a 4.44% rise in food CPI and a 2.94% increase in all-items CPI, underlining continuing inflation in food prices.

In contrast, states such as Kwara and Cross River recorded the smallest MoM increases, with Kwara registering only a 0.88% rise in food prices and 1.14% in all-items CPI. This suggests comparatively lower inflationary pressures in these states, possibly due to regional variations in food supply, distribution networks, or consumption patterns.

Yearly Comparison: September 2023 vs. September 2024

Looking at YoY changes, the data reveals substantial increases in food CPI across many states, indicating higher inflationary pressures over the past year.

High YoY Growth in Food CPI:
- Sokoto: Food CPI rose by 50.47%, with an all-items increase of 38.74%. This sharp rise highlights considerable inflationary pressures over the year.
- Gombe: Food CPI increased by 44.09%, while all-items CPI rose by 36.37%, indicating significant inflation across both food and general categories.
- Yobe and Jigawa: These states experienced food CPI increases of 43.51% and 43.17%, respectively, reflecting severe food inflation due to factors like production disruptions and logistic challenges.
Moderate YoY Growth in Food CPI:
- Taraba and Bayelsa saw increases of 38.59% and 38.28% in food CPI, respectively. Although high, these numbers are slightly below those observed in Sokoto and Gombe, indicating somewhat less intense inflationary pressures.
Lower YoY Growth in Food CPI:
- Rivers and Kogi recorded more moderate YoY increases at 32.80% and 32.83%, respectively, suggesting relatively better control over food inflation.

State-by-State CPI Analysis

The differences in CPI increases across states likely stem from varying local economic conditions, such as agricultural productivity, accessibility to urban centers, and the effectiveness of inflation control measures.

Sokoto and Taraba: These states exhibit significant MoM and YoY CPI increases, indicating ongoing and severe inflationary pressures. The elevated food index may result from local agricultural challenges or reliance on imports, which are subject to currency fluctuations and import tariffs.
Bayelsa and Zamfara: While both states recorded high YoY CPI increases, their MoM changes are more moderate compared to Sokoto, suggesting persistent yet gradually stabilizing inflationary pressures. Factors like seasonal demand or incremental improvements in food supply chains could be at play.
Gombe and Kano: These states showed substantial annual increases in all-items CPI, indicating heightened general inflation. In Kano, an economic hub, the inflationary trend might reflect price hikes in logistics and goods distribution, affecting both urban and rural areas.
Bauchi: Bauchi stands out with a 44.83% YoY increase in the all-items index, the highest among the states. This broad-based inflation could indicate structural economic challenges, potentially linked to fiscal pressures or macroeconomic instability.
Abuja (Federal Capital Territory): The Federal Capital recorded relatively low MoM increases, with 2.50% for food and 1.86% for all items. Abuja’s better performance in price control may be due to improved regulatory mechanisms and a diversified supply chain that helps buffer against inflationary spikes.
Kebbi, Lagos, and Jigawa: These states witnessed notable YoY increases in the all-items index. In Lagos, the commercial center of Nigeria, higher all-items CPI could reflect rising costs in housing, transportation, and miscellaneous expenses within the densely populated area. Jigawa’s food CPI increase of 43.17% indicates substantial inflation, likely driven by agricultural limitations or increased scarcity in food supplies.

Factors Contributing to CPI Increases

The NBS data suggests multiple factors that may be influencing the observed inflation trends across states:

Supply Chain Disruptions: States with high YoY CPI increases, especially in food, may face logistical challenges, such as transport delays or higher distribution costs. These factors drive up consumer prices as suppliers adjust to increased operational costs.
Currency Depreciation: The naira’s depreciation has contributed to inflation by raising the cost of imported goods. This effect is particularly noticeable in states dependent on imports, where currency fluctuations directly impact prices for consumers.
Seasonal Variations and Weather Patterns: Many states rely on agriculture as a primary economic activity, making them vulnerable to seasonal impacts. The high food CPI in Sokoto and Gombe, for example, may reflect agricultural output variations influenced by climate or weather patterns, affecting the local food supply.
Urban vs. Rural Variations: Urban areas like Lagos and Abuja have distinct inflationary patterns compared to rural regions. Urban centers often experience higher inflation due to increased demand for goods and services, coupled with higher living costs and wage structures.

Comparative Insights

The NBS data allows us to observe some broader trends in consumer inflation across Nigeria:

Food vs. All-Items Inflation: Food inflation is consistently outpacing general all-items inflation across states, signaling that food supply challenges are a critical area of concern. The vulnerability in food supply affects both urban and rural populations, and measures to improve food security and supply chains could mitigate these pressures.
Inflationary Pressures by Region: Northern states like Sokoto, Gombe, and Yobe exhibit some of the highest YoY increases in food CPI. These areas may face region-specific issues, such as insecurity impacting agriculture and difficulties in accessing markets.
Regional Price Stability: Southern states like Rivers and Cross River report relatively moderate YoY CPI increases, suggesting that local measures or unique regional characteristics may help stabilize food and general prices. These states could serve as benchmarks for inflation control, with lessons to be applied across Nigeria.

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